A decade following the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that divided the nation and unleashed chaos, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly tense and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim that moment is imminent, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has masked the lack of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has occurred in universities but scarcely any elected officials or activists want to engage with even the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer endorses unity or the current situation. They writes two pieces that strive for impartiality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the case against, gathering financial and social statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass national emblems, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the idea that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate say they prefer unification but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his generation is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he commented. "Somebody will succeed here and somebody will ultimately not succeed but each side has got important lessons to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Request for Broader Dialogue
Westminster must engage with the discussion, said O’Toole. "This is about your state. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
